Real estate market outlook good for state

When looking at a 10-year average, the Boise/Treasure Valley real estate market remains in a positive growth despite a valuation decline, Idaho Housing and Finance Association executive director Gerald Hunter said.

Hunter was speaking more than 900 people this morning at the Economic Outlook Forum 2008 sponsored by the Boise Metro Chamber of Commerce.

In 2008, the real estate market has dropped to a negative growth point of -5.2 percent, Hunter told the crowd in the Centre on the Grove. But when those losses are viewed in a 10-year comparison, it shows that the region continues to experience a positive growth pattern of about the national average: 5.45 percent valuation increase.

“If you use that benchmark, you may have to conclude that Boise has made its way through the housing bubble,” he said.

Hunter said normal comparison is made on a month-to-month evaluation, which leaves the long-term perspective out of focus. By looking at the greater picture, it’s easier to evaluate what’s happening.

In addition to this conclusion, he also said another positive perspective is the number of days a home remains on the market. Ten years ago it was common for a home to be on the market more than 70 days. In 2008, the Ada County homes were listed an average of 81 days (Canyon County were listed an average of 89 days). He said the numbers seem extreme since in 2006, the average number of days a home was on the market was 27 days.

“In looking back over 10 years, it’s worked its way back to near normal,” he said.

Additionally, the outlook of top business executives in the Treasure Valley indicated that most believed home prices will either hold during the 2009 year or experience a moderate decline. None was speculating a dramatic decrease in prices.

“It’s not a definitive response, but it’s reflective of a large group of professionals,” he said.

Only 16 percent of those surveyed responded that there would be a moderate decline in the housing prices.